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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ commanders week 11, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
6-3
23
TBD
FedExField
48°F
6 mph
21
WASCommanders
6-3
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
48°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
1
3
3
17
Commanders
0
7
7
7
21

Spread

WAS logo
+3

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
320
278
Total Plays
58
73
Yards / Play
5.5
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.21
Passing Yards
181
154
Comp/Att
16/24(67%)
18/39(46%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.54
Rushing Yards
139
124
Rush Attempts
31
29
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.42
-14.92
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-27
-35
Sack EPA
-5.17
-8.99
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
40
43
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-5.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model52.8%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+43.7
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.4
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-34.0
Home QB Adjustment
-13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+20.7
Market Regression
-9.4
Final Difference
-19.4
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
Value
Ptile
10/29
5.2
85
09/09
-4.7
19
09/16
2.9
69
09/23
3.8
73
09/30
3.9
74
10/07
7.0
89
10/14
-11.1
2
10/21
-2.7
29
10/25
10.0
96
11/04
2.1
63
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Value
Ptile
01/06
2.5
70
09/09
2.0
62
09/16
1.5
57
09/23
0.3
48
10/08
-2.8
29
10/14
-2.5
31
10/21
-1.2
38
10/28
0.2
48
11/04
-0.5
42
11/11
-2.9
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Texans logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
12
15
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
16

EPA

EPA / Play
15
21
EPA / Pass
13
15
EPA / Rush
21
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
12
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
2
RZ Efficiency
28
4
Commanders Offense vs Texans Defense
Commanders logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
28
14
Passing Yards / Game
26
22
Rushing Yards / Game
17
4

EPA

EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
12
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
25
4th Down Efficiency
17
21
RZ Efficiency
24
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-9
L
L
U
09/09
-7
L
L
U
09/16
-3
L
L
U
09/23
-5
L
L
O
09/30
3
W
W
O
10/07
3
W
L
U
10/14
7
W
L
U
10/21
13
W
W
U
10/25
19
W
W
O
11/04
2
W
W
U
WAS logo

Commanders

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-8
L
L
U
09/09
18
W
W
U
09/16
-12
L
L
U
09/23
14
W
W
O
10/08
-24
L
L
O
10/14
6
W
W
U
10/21
3
W
W
U
10/28
7
W
W
U
11/04
-24
L
L
O
11/11
13
W
W
U