HOUTexans
6-3
23
TBD
FedExField
48°F
6 mph
21
WASCommanders
6-3
TBD
FedExField
48°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
1
3
3
17
Commanders
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
278
Total Plays
58
73
Yards / Play
5.5
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.21
Passing Yards
181
154
Comp/Att
16/24(67%)
18/39(46%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.54
Rushing Yards
139
124
Rush Attempts
31
29
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.42
-14.92
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-27
-35
Sack EPA
-5.17
-8.99
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
40
43
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-5.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model52.6%
Spread Pick
Commanders+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+43.2
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.8
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-34.0
Home QB Adjustment
-13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+20.7
Market Regression
-9.4
Final Difference
-18.2
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
15
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
16
EPA
EPA / Play
15
21
EPA / Pass
13
15
EPA / Rush
21
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
12
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
2
RZ Efficiency
28
4
Commanders Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
28
14
Passing Yards / Game
26
22
Rushing Yards / Game
17
4
EPA
EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
12
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
25
4th Down Efficiency
17
21
RZ Efficiency
24
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U