HOUTexans
3-1
17
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
020
DALCowboys
3-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Texans
0
0
7
10
0
17
Cowboys
0
3
7
7
3
20
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
456
Total Plays
56
75
Yards / Play
5.9
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.02
Passing Yards
--
316
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.26
Rushing Yards
176
140
Rush Attempts
31
33
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
24
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
31%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-0.62
-8.96
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.86
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
--
56
Penalty EPA
--
-5.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.6
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.3
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
16
21
Passing Yards / Game
32
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
8
EPA
EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
17
19
EPA / Rush
14
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
11
12
Fumbles / Game
19
2
Turnover EPA / Game
16
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
18
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Cowboys Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
6
Yards / Game
9
16
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
2
9
EPA
EPA / Play
2
2
EPA / Pass
1
2
EPA / Rush
8
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
27
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
27
6
Turnover EPA / Game
22
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
7
RZ Efficiency
3
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U