HOUTexans
1-8
15
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
13 mph
30
MIADolphins
7-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
6
9
15
Dolphins
10
14
0
0
24
Spread
-14
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
210
339
Total Plays
60
72
Yards / Play
3.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.40
-0.12
Passing Yards
174
273
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
23/41(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.55
+0.12
Rushing Yards
36
66
Rush Attempts
15
26
Yards / Rush
2.4
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
25
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
15%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-15.11
-5.27
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-41
-32
Sack EPA
-7.45
-6.94
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
45
35
Penalty EPA
-3.41
-4.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+289
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,340
Home Field
+73.0
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+44.7
Home QB Adjustment
+47.3
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+47.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
31
19
Passing Yards / Game
22
24
Rushing Yards / Game
31
4
EPA
EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
31
17
EPA / Rush
31
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
23
Interceptions / Game
31
27
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
3
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
26
4th Down Efficiency
16
13
RZ Efficiency
28
24
Dolphins Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
27
Yards / Game
9
30
Passing Yards / Game
4
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
32
EPA
EPA / Play
11
12
EPA / Pass
8
13
EPA / Rush
20
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
5
10
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
11
26
RZ Efficiency
10
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-8-1
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U