HOUTexans
1-2
21
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
048
ATLFalcons
3-0
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
0
21
21
Falcons
7
15
14
0
36
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
378
Total Plays
75
65
Yards / Play
5.7
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.12
Passing Yards
374
243
Comp/Att
29/57(51%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.36
Rushing Yards
54
135
Rush Attempts
17
36
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.53
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
47%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-24.56
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-13
Sack EPA
-1.71
-3.77
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
35
80
Penalty EPA
-6.21
-8.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
R. Mallett
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
10
3
Rushing Yards / Game
16
14
EPA
EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
22
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
21
10
Fumbles / Game
20
23
Turnover EPA / Game
17
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
14
26
Falcons Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
11
EPA
EPA / Play
16
3
EPA / Pass
8
4
EPA / Rush
29
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
29
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
17
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U