nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ falcons week 4, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

HOU logo
HOUTexans
1-2
21
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
48
ATLFalcons
3-0
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
0
21
21
Falcons
7
15
14
0
36

Spread

ATL logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
428
378
Total Plays
75
65
Yards / Play
5.7
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.12
Passing Yards
374
243
Comp/Att
29/57(51%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.36
Rushing Yards
54
135
Rush Attempts
17
36
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.53
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
19
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
47%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-24.56
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-13
Sack EPA
-1.71
-3.77
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
35
80
Penalty EPA
-6.21
-8.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

R. Mallett headshot

R. Mallett

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Value
Ptile
11/16
2.0
65
11/23
-7.0
11
09/20
-1.6
39
09/27
-1.7
38
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Value
Ptile
11/16
1.9
64
11/23
0.9
56
11/30
6.8
88
12/08
8.8
94
12/14
6.0
86
12/21
6.8
88
12/28
-8.4
7
09/14
1.0
57
09/20
3.6
76
09/27
5.4
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Falcons Defense
Texans logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
10
3
Rushing Yards / Game
16
14

EPA

EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
22
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
21
10
Fumbles / Game
20
23
Turnover EPA / Game
17
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
14
26
Falcons Offense vs Texans Defense
Falcons logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
11

EPA

EPA / Play
16
3
EPA / Pass
8
4
EPA / Rush
29
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
29
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
17
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
16
W
W
U
11/23
-9
L
L
U
11/30
24
W
W
O
12/07
14
W
W
U
12/14
-7
L
P
U
12/21
12
W
W
U
12/28
6
W
L
O
09/13
-7
L
L
O
09/20
-7
L
L
P
09/27
10
W
W
U
ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
2
W
L
U
11/23
-2
L
L
O
11/30
11
W
W
O
12/08
-6
L
W
O
12/14
-7
L
L
U
12/21
16
W
W
U
12/28
-31
L
L
U
09/14
2
W
W
U
09/20
4
W
W
U
09/27
11
W
W
O