HOUTexans
2-0
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
4 mph
30
NYGGiants
0-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
10
7
17
Giants
0
14
3
13
30
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
411
419
Total Plays
62
71
Yards / Play
6.6
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.03
Passing Yards
292
226
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.03
Rushing Yards
119
193
Rush Attempts
25
42
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
26
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
17%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
29%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-12.50
-5.62
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-7
-8
Sack EPA
-1.19
-1.68
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
40
31
Penalty EPA
-4.82
-3.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+12
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.0
Home QB Adjustment
-12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
+39.2
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
16
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
30
EPA
EPA / Play
19
20
EPA / Pass
17
16
EPA / Rush
14
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
11
11
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
16
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
15
8
Giants Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
11
16
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9
EPA
EPA / Play
16
2
EPA / Pass
13
2
EPA / Rush
26
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
27
Interceptions / Game
15
3
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
7
RZ Efficiency
8
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U