HOUTexans
1-6
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
15 mph
24
NYGGiants
6-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
3
7
6
16
Giants
7
0
14
3
24
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
367
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.11
Passing Yards
286
176
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
13/17(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
10.4
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.70
Rushing Yards
101
191
Rush Attempts
19
47
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
17%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.81
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-33
-21
Sack EPA
-5.85
-3.76
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
40
24
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-4.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,392
Away nfelo
1,358
Home Field
+57.8
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+30.2
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
-19.9
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-19.9
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28
EPA
EPA / Play
31
31
EPA / Pass
31
21
EPA / Rush
31
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
5
Interceptions / Game
31
32
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
3
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
29
RZ Efficiency
28
10
Giants Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
19
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
32
EPA
EPA / Play
8
12
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
3
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
1
7
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
5
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-8-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U