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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ giants week 10, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
1-6
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
15 mph
24
NYGGiants
6-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
3
7
6
16
Giants
7
0
14
3
24

Spread

NYG logo
-5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
387
367
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.11
Passing Yards
286
176
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
13/17(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
10.4
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.70
Rushing Yards
101
191
Rush Attempts
19
47
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
17%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.81
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-33
-21
Sack EPA
-5.85
-3.76
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
40
24
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-4.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,394
Away nfelo
1,353
Home Field
+58.6
Base HFA
+40.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.5
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+30.2
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
-19.9
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-19.9
Value
Ptile
01/02
-5.3
17
01/09
5.7
87
09/11
-0.4
49
09/18
-7.0
9
09/25
-2.5
32
10/02
-2.8
29
10/09
-3.3
26
10/23
1.6
64
10/30
-6.4
11
11/03
-4.3
22
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Value
Ptile
11/22
-6.5
12
11/28
-0.8
47
09/11
-2.2
34
09/18
-2.5
32
09/26
-3.2
27
10/02
3.6
79
10/09
2.9
75
10/16
-3.0
29
10/23
8.2
94
10/30
-7.3
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Giants Defense
Texans logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28

EPA

EPA / Play
31
31
EPA / Pass
31
21
EPA / Rush
31
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
5
Interceptions / Game
31
32
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
3
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
29
RZ Efficiency
28
10
Giants Offense vs Texans Defense
Giants logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
19
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
32

EPA

EPA / Play
8
12
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
3
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
1
7
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
5
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

1-8-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-16
L
L
U
01/09
-3
L
W
O
09/11
0
T
W
U
09/18
-7
L
W
U
09/25
-3
L
P
O
10/02
-10
L
L
O
10/09
7
W
W
U
10/23
-18
L
L
O
10/30
-7
L
L
U
11/03
-12
L
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-26
L
L
U
01/09
-15
L
L
U
09/11
1
W
W
U
09/18
3
W
W
U
09/26
-7
L
L
O
10/02
8
W
W
U
10/09
5
W
W
O
10/16
4
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
W
U
10/30
-14
L
L
U