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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ jaguars week 2, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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HOU logo
HOUTexans
1-0
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
83°F
5 mph
7
JAXJaguars
0-1
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
83°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
7
7
3
27
Jaguars
0
0
7
0
7

Spread

HOU logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
411
117
Total Plays
83
38
Yards / Play
5.0
3.1
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.36
Passing Yards
--
52
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
9/21(43%)
Yards / Pass
--
2.5
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.55
Rushing Yards
216
65
Rush Attempts
48
14
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.50
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
28
9
Passing 1st downs
11
4
Rushing 1st downs
16
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
8
--
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.93
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-3.55
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
64
71
Penalty EPA
-7.20
-5.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-190
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,623
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-20.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
+64.0
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Value
Ptile
09/18
1.9
66
09/25
4.4
78
10/02
1.2
61
10/09
-1.5
40
10/16
-1.3
42
10/23
7.1
91
10/30
1.2
61
11/06
-1.5
40
11/13
3.6
75
09/09
1.3
59
B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
Value
Ptile
10/30
-8.7
4
11/13
-6.0
15
11/20
-0.7
47
11/27
-10.5
1
12/05
-1.1
44
12/11
-3.2
30
12/15
-7.5
7
12/24
-5.6
16
01/01
-6.4
12
09/09
1.2
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
11
29
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
20
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30

EPA

EPA / Play
11
27
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
14
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
2
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
14
15
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
29
7
Passing Yards / Game
12
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
6

EPA

EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
29
4
EPA / Rush
25
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
30
3
RZ Efficiency
27
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
28
W
W
O
11/27
7
W
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/18
-15
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
U
01/01
-1
L
P
O
01/07
21
W
W
O
01/15
-7
L
W
U
09/09
20
W
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
-10
L
P
U
11/13
14
W
W
U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/27
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-24
L
L
O
12/11
27
W
W
O
12/15
-27
L
L
O
12/24
-6
L
W
O
01/01
6
W
W
U
09/09
-3
L
W
O