HOUTexans
1-0
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
83°F
5 mph
7
JAXJaguars
0-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
83°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
7
7
3
27
Jaguars
0
0
7
0
7
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
411
117
Total Plays
83
38
Yards / Play
5.0
3.1
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.36
Passing Yards
--
52
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
9/21(43%)
Yards / Pass
--
2.5
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.55
Rushing Yards
216
65
Rush Attempts
48
14
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.50
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
9
Passing 1st downs
11
4
Rushing 1st downs
16
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
8
--
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.93
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-3.55
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
64
71
Penalty EPA
-7.20
-5.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-192
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,623
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-20.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
+64.0
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
29
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
20
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30
EPA
EPA / Play
11
27
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
14
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
2
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
14
15
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
29
7
Passing Yards / Game
12
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
6
EPA
EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
29
4
EPA / Rush
25
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
30
3
RZ Efficiency
27
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U