HOUTexans
0-2
37
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
84°F
6 mph
17
JAXJaguars
1-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
84°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
10
7
13
37
Jaguars
0
0
10
7
17
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
404
Total Plays
56
69
Yards / Play
6.5
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.27
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
29/42(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.04
Rushing Yards
86
116
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
60%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.37
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
75
--
Penalty EPA
-8.62
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+176
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,373
Home Field
+46.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Value
Ptile
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
15
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
20
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9
EPA
EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
11
11
EPA / Rush
27
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
17
RZ Efficiency
16
16
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
11
Yards / Game
12
15
Passing Yards / Game
22
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
28
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
15
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
31
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U