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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ jaguars week 3, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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HOU logo
HOUTexans
0-2
37
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
84°F
6 mph
17
JAXJaguars
1-1
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
84°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
10
7
13
37
Jaguars
0
0
10
7
17

Spread

HOU logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
366
404
Total Plays
56
69
Yards / Play
6.5
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.27
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
29/42(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.04
Rushing Yards
86
116
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
60%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.37
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
75
--
Penalty EPA
-8.62
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+176
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,373
Home Field
+46.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+0.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Value
Ptile
09/10
-3.2
28
09/17
0.6
53
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Value
Ptile
12/04
-3.5
25
12/11
11.5
98
12/18
9.5
95
12/22
4.9
85
01/01
-2.7
30
01/07
-1.8
40
01/14
-0.8
47
01/21
-2.1
36
09/10
1.7
61
09/17
-5.3
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
15
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
20
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9

EPA

EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
11
11
EPA / Rush
27
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
17
RZ Efficiency
16
16
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
15
11
Yards / Game
12
15
Passing Yards / Game
22
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8

EPA

EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
28
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
15
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
31
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
21
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-13
L
L
U
11/27
-15
L
L
U
12/04
-13
L
L
U
12/11
-4
L
W
O
12/18
-6
L
W
O
12/24
5
W
W
U
01/01
-28
L
L
U
01/08
1
W
W
O
09/10
-16
L
L
U
09/17
-11
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-26
L
L
O
12/11
14
W
W
O
12/18
6
W
W
O
12/22
16
W
W
U
01/01
28
W
W
U
01/07
4
W
L
U
01/14
1
W
W
O
01/21
-7
L
W
U
09/10
10
W
W
O
09/17
-8
L
L
U