HOUTexans
5-3
26
TBD
Wembley Stadium
53°F
6 mph
3
JAXJaguars
4-4
TBD
Wembley Stadium
53°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
6
10
7
26
Jaguars
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
410
356
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
6.5
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.28
Passing Yards
194
282
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
27/47(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.52
-0.34
Rushing Yards
216
74
Rush Attempts
34
15
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-2.16
-16.43
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-27
Sack EPA
-1.14
-8.24
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
--
34
Penalty EPA
--
-4.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model44.6%
Spread Pick
Texans+1.0
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-81
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
-14.0
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-23.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.2
Net QB Adjustment
-76.6
Home QB Adjustment
-54.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.8
Market Regression
+8.4
Final Difference
-37.7
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+21.8
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-54.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
11
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
9
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
27
EPA / Pass
13
23
EPA / Rush
6
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
18
25
Fumbles / Game
17
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
12
RZ Efficiency
9
16
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
23
Yards / Game
19
28
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
17
24
EPA
EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
17
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
3
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
30
8
Turnover EPA / Game
17
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
31
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U