HOUTexans
7-3
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
10 mph
13
JAXJaguars
3-7
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
13
0
0
20
Jaguars
1
3
0
3
7
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
215
255
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
3.6
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.31
Passing Yards
--
150
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.44
Rushing Yards
88
105
Rush Attempts
31
24
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.39
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
14
Passing 1st downs
4
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
13%
26%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
19
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.13
-3.09
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-48
Sack EPA
--
-8.40
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
80
30
Penalty EPA
-7.25
-2.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-148
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
-3.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+91.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-92.2
Market Regression
-45.8
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
M. Leinart
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-92.2
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
9
Rushing Yards / Game
2
9
EPA
EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
11
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
4
15
Fumbles / Game
20
12
Turnover EPA / Game
20
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
19
RZ Efficiency
22
24
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
32
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
2
EPA
EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
25
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
24
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
25
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
23
10
RZ Efficiency
20
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
1-9
O/U