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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ jaguars week 15, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
2-11
30
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
12 mph
16
JAXJaguars
2-11
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
6
3
7
30
Jaguars
3
7
3
3
16

Spread

HOU logo
+6

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
281
296
Total Plays
57
66
Yards / Play
4.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.13
Passing Yards
206
189
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.14
Rushing Yards
75
107
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
56%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.55
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-21
Sack EPA
-0.82
-4.87
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
65
40
Penalty EPA
-5.76
-3.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model61.3%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,295
Away nfelo
1,323
Home Field
+27.0
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
-16.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.6
Net QB Adjustment
+29.3
Home QB Adjustment
-25.4
Away QB Adjustment
-54.8
Market Regression
+14.2
Final Difference
79.5
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-54.8
Value
Ptile
09/23
-3.9
25
10/03
-15.2
0
10/10
5.4
85
10/17
-6.2
14
10/24
-3.6
27
10/31
1.5
64
12/12
2.9
75
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-25.4
Value
Ptile
09/30
2.0
68
10/10
1.7
65
10/17
0.9
60
10/31
-1.7
40
11/07
-4.8
20
11/14
-7.0
11
11/21
-4.5
22
11/28
-3.3
29
12/05
-4.5
21
12/12
-12.7
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
22

EPA

EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
30
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
22
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
25
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
27
24
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
27
Yards / Game
27
31
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31

EPA

EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
27
26
EPA / Rush
21
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
9
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
28
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-40
L
L
U
10/10
-3
L
W
O
10/17
-28
L
L
U
10/24
-26
L
L
U
10/31
-16
L
W
O
11/07
-8
L
L
U
11/21
9
W
W
U
11/28
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-31
L
L
U
12/12
-20
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-3
L
W
U
10/10
-18
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/31
-24
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
W
U
11/14
-6
L
W
U
11/21
-20
L
L
U
11/28
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-30
L
L
U
12/12
-20
L
L
U