HOUTexans
2-11
30
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
12 mph
16
JAXJaguars
2-11
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
6
3
7
30
Jaguars
3
7
3
3
16
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
281
296
Total Plays
57
66
Yards / Play
4.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.13
Passing Yards
206
189
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.14
Rushing Yards
75
107
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
56%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.55
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-21
Sack EPA
-0.82
-4.87
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
65
40
Penalty EPA
-5.76
-3.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model61.5%
Spread Pick
Texans+6.0
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+32
Home nfelo
1,299
Away nfelo
1,324
Home Field
+27.0
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
-16.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.7
Net QB Adjustment
+29.3
Home QB Adjustment
-25.4
Away QB Adjustment
-54.8
Market Regression
+15.7
Final Difference
81.1
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-54.8
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-25.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
22
EPA
EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
30
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
22
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
25
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
27
24
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
27
Yards / Game
27
31
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
27
26
EPA / Rush
21
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
9
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
28
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U