HOUTexans
4-0
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
4 mph
17
NYJJets
2-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
10
6
0
23
Jets
7
0
7
3
17
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
286
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
6.0
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.05
Passing Yards
--
217
Comp/Att
14/28(50%)
14/32(44%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.30
Rushing Yards
169
69
Rush Attempts
35
23
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.90
-10.55
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-2.82
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
50
25
Penalty EPA
-5.12
-2.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
Jets+9.5
Expected Value
+1.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-183
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,677
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-31.4
Home QB Adjustment
-13.6
Away QB Adjustment
+17.8
Market Regression
+1.9
Final Difference
-212.8
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.8
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-13.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
20
Yards / Game
6
6
Passing Yards / Game
20
1
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26
EPA
EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
14
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
11
23
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
14
26
Jets Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
9
Yards / Game
30
7
Passing Yards / Game
27
26
Rushing Yards / Game
12
6
EPA
EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
30
4
EPA / Rush
15
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
28
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
2
4th Down Efficiency
17
3
RZ Efficiency
25
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U