HOUTexans
9-1
34
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
031
DETLions
4-6
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Texans
0
14
10
7
3
34
Lions
7
14
3
7
0
31
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
501
525
Total Plays
78
87
Yards / Play
6.4
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.02
Passing Yards
296
419
Comp/Att
29/48(60%)
31/61(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.09
Rushing Yards
205
106
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
7.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
29
Passing 1st downs
15
21
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.60
-4.15
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-19
-22
Sack EPA
-2.23
-6.82
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
66
70
Penalty EPA
-5.30
-11.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-67
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,660
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-17.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
27
Yards / Game
6
12
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
21
EPA / Pass
9
20
EPA / Rush
14
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
24
Interceptions / Game
11
23
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
28
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
14
13
Lions Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
3
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
26
Rushing Yards / Game
23
6
EPA
EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
16
4
EPA / Rush
21
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
28
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
26
8
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
24
3
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U