HOUTexans
1-0
30
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
67°F
16 mph
14
OAKRaiders
0-1
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
67°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
3
10
3
30
Raiders
0
0
0
14
14
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
364
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
5.0
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.21
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
14/19(74%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.64
-0.40
Rushing Yards
188
101
Rush Attempts
46
17
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
60%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-20.71
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
85
24
Penalty EPA
-9.12
-3.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model52.8%
Spread Pick
Raiders+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
-9.4
Final Difference
-19.7
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
16
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
10
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22
EPA
EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
17
27
EPA / Rush
14
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
26
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
19
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
6
13
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Raiders Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
6
Yards / Game
32
16
Passing Yards / Game
29
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9
EPA
EPA / Play
32
2
EPA / Pass
31
2
EPA / Rush
32
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
27
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
28
6
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
1
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U