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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ rams week 1, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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HOU logo
HOUTexans
-
9
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
14
LARRams
-
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
6
0
0
9
Rams
0
7
7
0
14

Spread

LAR logo
-3

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
265
296
Total Plays
57
57
Yards / Play
4.6
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.10
Passing Yards
151
224
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.07
Rushing Yards
114
72
Rush Attempts
27
25
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
22%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.43
-5.70
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-37
-21
Sack EPA
-6.07
-5.97
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
80
60
Penalty EPA
-9.87
-6.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+46.1
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+7.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Value
Ptile
10/31
-8.2
5
11/10
-7.2
8
11/18
0.4
51
11/24
-4.3
21
12/01
-2.2
33
12/15
-3.7
24
12/21
-1.0
41
12/25
-8.4
4
01/11
1.0
55
01/18
-3.5
25
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Value
Ptile
11/11
-2.6
31
11/17
8.5
94
11/24
0.3
51
12/01
-1.3
39
12/08
8.4
94
12/12
-0.4
46
12/22
-2.0
35
12/28
-2.9
28
01/13
1.3
58
01/19
0.5
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Rams Defense
Texans logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
18
19
Passing Yards / Game
26
13
Rushing Yards / Game
22
11

EPA

EPA / Play
24
11
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
30
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
30
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
15
10
RZ Efficiency
29
8
Rams Offense vs Texans Defense
Rams logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
1
3
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
3
16
Rushing Yards / Game
9
2

EPA

EPA / Play
2
1
EPA / Pass
3
1
EPA / Rush
10
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
22
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
24
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
2
4th Down Efficiency
5
9
RZ Efficiency
7
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
-3
L
W
U
11/18
24
W
W
O
11/24
-5
L
L
O
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/15
8
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
12/25
-29
L
L
U
01/05
9
W
W
O
01/11
20
W
W
O
01/18
-9
L
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
6
W
W
O
11/24
-17
L
L
O
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
2
W
W
O
12/12
6
W
W
U
12/22
10
W
W
U
12/28
4
W
L
U
01/05
-5
L
W
O
01/13
18
W
W
U
01/19
-6
L
W
O