HOUTexans
-
9
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
014
LARRams
-
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
6
0
0
9
Rams
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
296
Total Plays
57
57
Yards / Play
4.6
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.10
Passing Yards
151
224
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.07
Rushing Yards
114
72
Rush Attempts
27
25
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
22%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.43
-5.70
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-37
-21
Sack EPA
-6.07
-5.97
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
80
60
Penalty EPA
-9.87
-6.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+7.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
2
Yards / Game
19
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
5
Rushing Yards / Game
23
11
EPA
EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
17
3
EPA / Rush
23
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
5
4th Down Efficiency
11
13
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Rams Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
8
1
Passing Yards / Game
7
8
Rushing Yards / Game
18
3
EPA
EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
3
1
EPA / Rush
27
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
2
3
Fumbles / Game
24
11
Turnover EPA / Game
21
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
8
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U