HOUTexans
-
9
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
014
LARRams
-
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
6
0
0
9
Rams
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
296
Total Plays
57
57
Yards / Play
4.6
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.10
Passing Yards
151
224
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.07
Rushing Yards
114
72
Rush Attempts
27
25
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
22%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.43
-5.70
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-37
-21
Sack EPA
-6.07
-5.97
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
80
60
Penalty EPA
-9.87
-6.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+7.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
10
Yards / Game
25
9
Passing Yards / Game
17
18
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10
EPA
EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
11
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
30
RZ Efficiency
31
16
Rams Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
2
15
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
17
1
EPA / Pass
8
3
EPA / Rush
26
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
16
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
14
10
RZ Efficiency
21
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U