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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ ravens week 1, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
-
9
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
0
25
BALRavens
-
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
6
0
3
9
Ravens
7
0
15
3
25

Spread

BAL logo
-9.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
268
267
Total Plays
72
59
Yards / Play
3.7
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.07
Passing Yards
196
155
Comp/Att
28/44(64%)
17/22(77%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.20
Rushing Yards
72
112
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.35
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
39%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.39
-9.40
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-46
-14
Sack EPA
-14.19
-10.18
Penalties
9
13
Penalty Yards
88
106
Penalty EPA
-8.38
-12.69

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+240
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,390
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+9.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.6
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
No recent game data available
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Value
Ptile
09/25
9.3
95
10/02
0.5
55
10/09
0.1
53
10/16
0.9
59
10/23
-3.0
28
10/27
4.5
83
11/07
0.5
55
11/20
-1.3
44
11/27
2.9
75
12/04
-6.4
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Texans logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
15
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
28
12

EPA

EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
11
2
EPA / Rush
27
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
1
10
Fumbles / Game
13
20
Turnover EPA / Game
32
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
16
2
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Ravens logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
6
Rushing Yards / Game
1
8

EPA

EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
4
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
15
Interceptions / Game
1
15
Fumbles / Game
30
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
7
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
-12
L
W
O
11/13
-8
L
L
U
11/20
-13
L
L
U
11/27
-15
L
L
U
12/04
-13
L
L
U
12/11
-4
L
W
O
12/18
-6
L
W
O
12/24
5
W
W
U
01/01
-28
L
L
U
01/08
1
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
14
W
W
U
11/20
10
W
L
U
11/27
-1
L
L
O
12/04
1
W
L
U
12/11
2
W
W
U
12/17
-10
L
L
U
12/24
8
W
W
U
01/01
-3
L
L
U
01/08
-11
L
P
O
01/15
-7
L
W
O