HOUTexans
0-2
21
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
79°F
6 mph
28
PITSteelers
2-0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
79°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
14
0
0
21
Steelers
3
14
3
8
28
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
389
Total Plays
47
77
Yards / Play
5.5
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.13
Passing Yards
231
220
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.26
Rushing Yards
29
169
Rush Attempts
15
38
Yards / Rush
1.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
42%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.73
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-33
-19
Sack EPA
-7.06
-4.07
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-5.76
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+25.6
Home QB Adjustment
+25.7
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
-25.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
5
Yards / Game
11
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
13
EPA
EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
6
2
EPA / Rush
23
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
32
Interceptions / Game
2
4
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
18
1
RZ Efficiency
25
5
Steelers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
27
Yards / Game
22
30
Passing Yards / Game
31
20
Rushing Yards / Game
32
32
EPA
EPA / Play
19
31
EPA / Pass
15
31
EPA / Rush
32
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
25
32
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
29
4th Down Efficiency
11
14
RZ Efficiency
8
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U