HOUTexans
4-5
16
TBD
Nissan Stadium
64°F
8 mph
13
TENTitans
1-8
TBD
Nissan Stadium
64°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
10
6
16
Titans
3
0
3
7
13
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
229
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
4.6
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.07
Passing Yards
240
171
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.07
Rushing Yards
75
58
Rush Attempts
23
17
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
14
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.41
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-34
-23
Sack EPA
-11.30
-7.81
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
53
62
Penalty EPA
-6.55
-9.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model74.2%
Spread Pick
Texans-5.5
Expected Value
+19.8%
Cover Probability
62.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-227
Home nfelo
1,287
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+49.6
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
+12.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.9
Home QB Adjustment
-26.6
Away QB Adjustment
-16.7
Market Regression
+6.7
Final Difference
-183.2
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.7
C. Ward
Proj. Value
-4.0
Team Elo Adj
-26.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
30
Yards / Game
19
24
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25
EPA
EPA / Play
26
26
EPA / Pass
17
28
EPA / Rush
23
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
1
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
25
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
31
18
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
32
1
Passing Yards / Game
24
8
Rushing Yards / Game
32
3
EPA
EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
31
1
EPA / Rush
31
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
32
11
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
3
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
30
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Titans
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U