TENTitans
1-1
7
TBD
Paycor Stadium
74°F
20 mph
33
CINBengals
2-0
TBD
Paycor Stadium
74°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
0
7
7
Bengals
10
7
7
7
31
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
300
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
5.1
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.16
Passing Yards
177
--
Comp/Att
17/34(50%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.40
-0.13
Rushing Yards
149
116
Rush Attempts
28
31
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
11
11
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
17%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.74
-4.39
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-3.35
--
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
99
50
Penalty EPA
-8.32
-8.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+20.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
-7.4
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
13
Yards / Game
29
23
Passing Yards / Game
16
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
20
EPA
EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
17
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
30
Interceptions / Game
19
6
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
28
22
RZ Efficiency
26
7
Bengals Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
31
EPA
EPA / Play
15
30
EPA / Pass
23
26
EPA / Rush
3
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
6
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
10
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
2-6-2
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U