TENTitans
3-1
12
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
8 mph
13
BUFBills
1-3
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
3
0
6
12
Bills
7
0
3
3
13
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
221
223
Total Plays
53
64
Yards / Play
4.2
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.18
Passing Yards
121
79
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
10/20(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
4.0
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.56
Rushing Yards
100
144
Rush Attempts
25
43
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
8
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.15
-3.92
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-3
Sack EPA
-1.08
-1.71
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
40
30
Penalty EPA
-4.01
-3.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
Bills+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,325
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+86.6
Base HFA
+56.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+33.2
Home QB Adjustment
+45.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
-21.2
Final Difference
-113.0
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+45.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
19
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
15
EPA
EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
16
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
14
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
18
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
13
RZ Efficiency
23
30
Bills Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
30
7
Passing Yards / Game
32
7
Rushing Yards / Game
8
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
31
14
EPA / Rush
20
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
10
Interceptions / Game
31
23
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
16
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U