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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ bills week 5, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
3-1
12
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
8 mph
13
BUFBills
1-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
3
0
6
12
Bills
7
0
3
3
13

Spread

BUF logo
+6

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
221
223
Total Plays
53
64
Yards / Play
4.2
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.18
Passing Yards
121
79
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
10/20(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
4.0
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.56
Rushing Yards
100
144
Rush Attempts
25
43
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
8
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.15
-3.92
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-3
Sack EPA
-1.08
-1.71
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
40
30
Penalty EPA
-4.01
-3.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,322
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+87.7
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+33.2
Home QB Adjustment
+45.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
-21.3
Final Difference
-113.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Value
Ptile
11/26
-3.0
31
12/03
0.8
58
12/10
-9.5
4
12/17
3.6
78
12/24
-0.1
51
12/31
0.5
56
01/06
1.2
61
01/13
-2.1
38
09/09
-7.1
10
09/30
7.0
90
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+45.4
Value
Ptile
09/16
-6.3
12
09/23
4.7
78
09/30
-15.4
0

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Bills Defense
Titans logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
27
19
Yards / Game
25
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
15

EPA

EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
16
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
14
Interceptions / Game
14
7
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
18
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
13
RZ Efficiency
23
30
Bills Offense vs Titans Defense
Bills logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
30
7
Passing Yards / Game
32
7
Rushing Yards / Game
8
19

EPA

EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
31
14
EPA / Rush
20
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
10
Interceptions / Game
31
23
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
16
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-5
L
L
U
12/17
-2
L
W
O
12/24
-4
L
W
O
12/31
5
W
W
U
01/06
1
W
W
U
01/13
-21
L
L
O
09/09
-7
L
L
O
09/16
3
W
W
U
09/23
3
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-20
L
L
U
12/10
6
W
W
U
12/17
8
W
W
O
12/24
-21
L
L
O
12/31
6
W
W
U
01/07
-7
L
W
U
09/09
-44
L
L
O
09/16
-11
L
L
O
09/23
21
W
W
U
09/30
-22
L
L
U