TENTitans
-
12
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
84°F
6 mph
20
DENBroncos
-
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
84°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
6
3
0
12
Broncos
3
7
3
7
20
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
133
317
Total Plays
55
71
Yards / Play
2.4
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.31
-0.14
Passing Yards
62
166
Comp/Att
12/28(43%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
2.2
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.48
-0.19
Rushing Yards
71
151
Rush Attempts
21
30
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.44
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
7
20
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
6
3rd Down %
14%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-1.82
-13.57
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-50
-10
Sack EPA
-9.67
-5.21
Penalties
13
6
Penalty Yards
131
--
Penalty EPA
-15.54
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+207
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,377
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+10.3
Market Regression
+22.6
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
C. Ward
Proj. Value
-4.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
No recent game data available
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
3
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
24
16
Rushing Yards / Game
32
4
EPA
EPA / Play
31
4
EPA / Pass
31
2
EPA / Rush
31
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
32
16
Turnover EPA / Game
13
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
30
1
Broncos Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
30
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
24
Rushing Yards / Game
11
25
EPA
EPA / Play
20
26
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
14
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
20
23
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
21
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
15
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
1-8-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U