TENTitans
5-7
28
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
18°F
5 mph
51
DENBroncos
10-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
18°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
14
7
7
0
28
Broncos
10
10
14
17
51
Spread
-12.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
254
551
Total Plays
48
91
Yards / Play
5.3
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.33
Passing Yards
158
--
Comp/Att
13/24(54%)
39/59(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.37
Rushing Yards
96
154
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
39
Passing 1st downs
6
25
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
22%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.91
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-3.04
--
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
66
60
Penalty EPA
-5.06
-4.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+326
Home nfelo
1,665
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+17.3
Away QB Adjustment
+19.3
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
14
5
EPA
EPA / Play
16
23
EPA / Pass
13
23
EPA / Rush
12
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
20
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
4
RZ Efficiency
9
25
Broncos Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
16
Yards / Game
1
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
8
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
1
22
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
19
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
25
1
Turnover EPA / Game
15
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
2
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U