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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ broncos week 14, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
5-7
28
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
18°F
5 mph
51
DENBroncos
10-2
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
18°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
14
7
7
0
28
Broncos
10
10
14
17
51

Spread

DEN logo
-12.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
254
551
Total Plays
48
91
Yards / Play
5.3
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.33
Passing Yards
158
--
Comp/Att
13/24(54%)
39/59(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.37
Rushing Yards
96
154
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
15
39
Passing 1st downs
6
25
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
22%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.91
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-3.04
--
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
66
60
Penalty EPA
-5.06
-4.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+326
Home nfelo
1,665
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+17.3
Away QB Adjustment
+19.3
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Value
Ptile
12/02
-0.4
47
12/09
-2.0
35
12/16
-4.6
21
12/23
-1.3
40
12/30
1.4
60
10/06
-0.5
47
10/13
-5.6
17
11/14
3.3
72
11/24
6.9
90
12/01
-1.5
42
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
Value
Ptile
09/23
11.5
97
09/29
10.7
96
10/06
13.2
99
10/13
2.9
70
10/20
3.0
71
10/27
3.0
71
11/10
7.5
91
11/17
5.0
84
11/24
-3.8
25
12/01
8.5
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Titans logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
14
5

EPA

EPA / Play
16
23
EPA / Pass
13
23
EPA / Rush
12
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
20
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
4
RZ Efficiency
9
25
Broncos Offense vs Titans Defense
Broncos logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
1
16
Yards / Game
1
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
8
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19

EPA

EPA / Play
1
22
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
19
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
25
1
Turnover EPA / Game
15
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
2
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
3
W
P
U
09/29
25
W
W
O
10/06
-9
L
L
O
10/13
-7
L
W
U
10/20
-14
L
L
O
11/03
7
W
W
O
11/10
-2
L
L
O
11/14
-3
L
L
O
11/24
4
W
W
P
12/01
-8
L
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
16
W
P
O
09/29
32
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
L
O
10/13
16
W
L
O
10/20
-6
L
L
O
10/27
24
W
W
O
11/10
8
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
7
W
W
O