TENTitans
1-1
3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
68°F
5 mph
27
CLEBrowns
1-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
68°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
0
0
3
Browns
3
10
7
7
27
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
94
341
Total Plays
45
67
Yards / Play
2.1
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.18
Passing Yards
68
263
Comp/Att
13/25(52%)
27/33(82%)
Yards / Pass
2.7
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.56
+0.23
Rushing Yards
26
78
Rush Attempts
15
31
Yards / Rush
1.7
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
6
23
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
--
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
17%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.68
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-36
-26
Sack EPA
-9.14
-4.59
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
80
46
Penalty EPA
-11.18
-5.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model63.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+50.7
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
-1.8
Market Regression
-18.7
Final Difference
97.3
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
28
1
Passing Yards / Game
18
2
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10
EPA
EPA / Play
16
1
EPA / Pass
21
1
EPA / Rush
13
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
11
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
1
RZ Efficiency
28
32
Browns Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
15
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
5
19
Rushing Yards / Game
13
14
EPA
EPA / Play
28
28
EPA / Pass
28
30
EPA / Rush
23
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
32
32
Fumbles / Game
26
13
Turnover EPA / Game
1
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
15
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U