TENTitans
-
26
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
69°F
7 mph
10
KCChiefs
-
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
69°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
10
10
6
26
Chiefs
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
405
245
Total Plays
75
56
Yards / Play
5.4
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.21
Passing Yards
243
178
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.23
Rushing Yards
162
67
Rush Attempts
38
17
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
15
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
44%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.80
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-23
-24
Sack EPA
-5.13
-7.08
Penalties
12
3
Penalty Yards
110
25
Penalty EPA
-9.77
-3.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model64.4%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-3.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.8
Away QB Adjustment
-6.3
Market Regression
-28.1
Final Difference
102.9
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28
EPA
EPA / Play
30
12
EPA / Pass
30
8
EPA / Rush
17
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
7
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
13
25
Turnover EPA / Game
13
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
26
1
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
29
Yards / Game
25
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
2
Rushing Yards / Game
11
31
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
12
26
EPA / Rush
4
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
19
4th Down Efficiency
21
14
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
2-6-2
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U