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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ chiefs week 1, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
-
26
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
69°F
7 mph
10
KCChiefs
-
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
69°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
10
10
6
26
Chiefs
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

TEN logo
+3

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
405
245
Total Plays
75
56
Yards / Play
5.4
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.21
Passing Yards
243
178
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.23
Rushing Yards
162
67
Rush Attempts
38
17
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
24
15
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
44%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.80
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-23
-24
Sack EPA
-5.13
-7.08
Penalties
12
3
Penalty Yards
110
25
Penalty EPA
-9.77
-3.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model64.1%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.8
Away QB Adjustment
-6.3
Market Regression
-30.2
Final Difference
100.7
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Locker headshot

J. Locker

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Value
Ptile
12/17
-0.2
49
12/23
-11.3
2
12/30
-5.1
18
09/08
-3.5
28
09/15
-2.5
36
09/22
8.0
92
09/29
4.6
82
10/20
3.6
75
11/03
-6.2
13
11/10
-7.8
9
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Value
Ptile
10/20
2.0
64
10/27
0.3
52
11/03
-3.7
27
11/17
1.1
57
11/24
1.7
62
12/01
6.6
88
12/08
1.6
61
12/15
9.5
95
12/22
-6.7
12
01/04
12.7
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Titans logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28

EPA

EPA / Play
30
12
EPA / Pass
30
8
EPA / Rush
17
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
7
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
13
25
Turnover EPA / Game
13
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
26
1
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Chiefs logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
15
29
Yards / Game
25
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
2
Rushing Yards / Game
11
31

EPA

EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
12
26
EPA / Rush
4
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
19
4th Down Efficiency
21
14
RZ Efficiency
9
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
2-6-2
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
-14
L
L
O
11/03
7
W
W
O
11/10
-2
L
L
O
11/14
-3
L
L
O
11/24
4
W
W
P
12/01
-8
L
L
U
12/08
-23
L
L
O
12/15
-3
L
P
O
12/22
4
W
P
U
12/29
6
W
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
6
W
L
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/17
-10
L
L
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
-7
L
L
O
12/08
35
W
W
O
12/15
25
W
W
O
12/22
-16
L
L
U
12/29
-3
L
W
O
01/04
-1
L
L
O