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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ chiefs week 20, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
11-7
24
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0
35
KCChiefs
13-4
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
10
7
0
7
24
Chiefs
7
14
0
14
35

Spread

KC logo
-7

Total

OVER
51

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
295
404
Total Plays
58
64
Yards / Play
5.1
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.31
Passing Yards
210
292
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.45
Rushing Yards
85
112
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
20
27
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
30%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-27
-2
Sack EPA
-7.07
-1.49
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
85
61
Penalty EPA
-8.74
-7.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+152
Home nfelo
1,682
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+61.8
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.7
Home QB Adjustment
+18.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.0
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
Value
Ptile
11/03
2.7
70
11/10
0.1
53
11/24
10.7
98
12/01
-4.0
25
12/08
8.1
94
12/15
0.5
55
12/22
0.6
57
12/29
1.3
63
01/04
-4.2
24
01/11
1.1
61
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+18.7
Value
Ptile
10/13
0.0
52
10/17
-0.3
50
11/10
11.0
99
11/18
0.9
59
12/01
-0.5
48
12/08
2.6
69
12/15
4.4
81
12/22
7.2
91
12/29
-1.4
43
01/12
10.8
98

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Titans logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
8
10
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25

EPA

EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
4
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
28
Interceptions / Game
6
4
Fumbles / Game
3
24
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
1
10
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Chiefs logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13

EPA

EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
7
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
5
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
14
11
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
11
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
-10
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
W
O
11/24
22
W
W
O
12/01
14
W
W
O
12/08
21
W
W
O
12/15
-3
L
L
U
12/22
-10
L
L
O
12/29
21
W
W
O
01/04
7
W
W
U
01/11
16
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
-7
L
L
O
11/03
3
W
W
O
11/10
-3
L
L
O
11/18
7
W
W
U
12/01
31
W
W
U
12/08
7
W
W
U
12/15
20
W
W
U
12/22
23
W
W
U
12/29
10
W
P
O
01/12
20
W
W
O