TENTitans
11-7
24
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
035
KCChiefs
13-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
10
7
0
7
24
Chiefs
7
14
0
14
35
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
404
Total Plays
58
64
Yards / Play
5.1
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.31
Passing Yards
210
292
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.45
Rushing Yards
85
112
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
27
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
30%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-27
-2
Sack EPA
-7.07
-1.49
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
85
61
Penalty EPA
-8.74
-7.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+147
Home nfelo
1,681
Away nfelo
1,610
Home Field
+61.8
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.7
Home QB Adjustment
+18.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.0
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
10
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
4
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
28
Interceptions / Game
6
4
Fumbles / Game
3
24
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
1
10
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
4
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13
EPA
EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
7
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
5
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
14
11
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
11
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U