TENTitans
1-2
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
017
INDColts
1-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
14
10
0
0
24
Colts
0
10
7
0
17
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
243
365
Total Plays
52
63
Yards / Play
4.7
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.14
Passing Yards
116
327
Comp/Att
17/21(81%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.24
Rushing Yards
127
38
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
4.5
1.7
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.60
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
42%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-15.85
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-21
-29
Sack EPA
-6.98
-8.31
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
40
50
Penalty EPA
-3.18
-5.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+41.4
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-9.2
Home QB Adjustment
-17.3
Away QB Adjustment
-8.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
28
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
24
18
Rushing Yards / Game
13
20
EPA
EPA / Play
25
10
EPA / Pass
23
16
EPA / Rush
26
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
9
24
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
6
32
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
32
Rushing Yards / Game
23
1
EPA
EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
30
28
EPA / Rush
30
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
32
13
Fumbles / Game
32
14
Turnover EPA / Game
1
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
23
32
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
5-4-1
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U