TENTitans
2-2
16
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
023
INDColts
2-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
3
10
0
16
Colts
7
3
7
6
23
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
348
429
Total Plays
58
61
Yards / Play
6.0
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.21
Passing Yards
259
236
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.37
Rushing Yards
89
193
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
25%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.25
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-17
Sack EPA
-0.26
-2.24
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
58
55
Penalty EPA
-6.72
-5.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-13
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+46.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+22.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
-12.5
Market Regression
-41.4
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
28
Yards / Game
28
24
Passing Yards / Game
18
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
21
15
EPA / Rush
13
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
10
14
Fumbles / Game
6
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
11
30
RZ Efficiency
28
16
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
14
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14
EPA
EPA / Play
17
28
EPA / Pass
16
30
EPA / Rush
21
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
6
32
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
19
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
23
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U