TENTitans
1-6
14
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
038
INDColts
6-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
0
7
14
Colts
10
7
14
7
38
Spread
-15.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
420
Total Plays
67
52
Yards / Play
5.1
8.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.38
Passing Yards
228
256
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.38
Rushing Yards
113
164
Rush Attempts
25
18
Yards / Rush
4.5
9.1
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.57
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-31
-16
Sack EPA
-8.18
-3.65
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
--
32
Penalty EPA
--
-5.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-15.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market89.1%
Model87.7%
Spread Pick
Titans+15.5
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+281
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,315
Home Field
+29.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
-18.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
-7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+50.2
Home QB Adjustment
+27.8
Away QB Adjustment
-22.4
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
342.0
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
C. Ward
Proj. Value
-4.0
Team Elo Adj
-22.4
D. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+27.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
9
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
5
EPA
EPA / Play
31
11
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
31
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
18
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
32
11
Turnover EPA / Game
13
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
27
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
30
24
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
30
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
9
28
EPA / Rush
1
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
1
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U