TENTitans
5-5
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
024
INDColts
4-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
7
3
17
Colts
14
7
0
3
24
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
327
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
5.0
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.07
Passing Yards
254
251
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.23
Rushing Yards
97
76
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
36%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.20
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-36
-11
Sack EPA
-7.49
-2.90
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
109
70
Penalty EPA
-9.64
-7.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+77
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+78.0
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-28.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+36.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+36.3
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
21
Yards / Game
11
30
Passing Yards / Game
31
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
13
25
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
5
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
16
17
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
8
RZ Efficiency
1
6
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
7
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
18
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
3
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U