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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ colts week 12, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TEN logo
TENTitans
6-4
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
16
INDColts
3-7
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
6
0
7
7
20
Colts
0
13
3
0
16

Spread

TEN logo
-3

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
276
254
Total Plays
53
61
Yards / Play
5.2
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.17
Passing Yards
--
165
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.18
Rushing Yards
92
89
Rush Attempts
28
24
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.67
-6.33
Sacks
--
8
Sack Yards
--
-31
Sack EPA
--
-10.11
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
15
67
Penalty EPA
-2.85
-8.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,344
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+77.1
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
+16.2
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+25.3
Home QB Adjustment
+28.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
+8.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Value
Ptile
12/24
-6.1
11
09/10
3.5
78
09/17
-0.6
47
09/24
5.0
84
10/01
-0.2
50
10/16
1.6
65
10/22
-3.1
31
11/05
-0.1
51
11/12
-0.6
47
11/16
-5.3
18
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+28.2
Value
Ptile
10/02
-1.7
36
09/17
-7.1
12
09/24
4.3
81
10/01
-3.6
26
10/08
-1.2
43
10/16
-0.6
47
10/22
-7.8
8
10/29
-1.0
45
11/05
3.3
76
11/12
-1.5
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Titans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
20
30
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
23
30
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25

EPA

EPA / Play
18
32
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
10
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
1
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
16
15
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Colts logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
21
4

EPA

EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
30
23
EPA / Rush
18
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
31
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-10
L
L
U
09/17
21
W
W
O
09/24
6
W
W
O
10/01
-43
L
L
O
10/08
-6
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
O
10/22
3
W
L
U
11/05
3
W
P
O
11/12
4
W
L
O
11/16
-23
L
L
O
IND logo

Colts

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-37
L
L
O
09/17
-3
L
W
U
09/24
3
W
W
O
10/01
-28
L
L
O
10/08
3
W
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
O
10/22
-27
L
L
U
10/29
-1
L
W
O
11/05
6
W
W
U
11/12
-3
L
W
U