TENTitans
6-4
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
016
INDColts
3-7
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
6
0
7
7
20
Colts
0
13
3
0
16
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
254
Total Plays
53
61
Yards / Play
5.2
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.17
Passing Yards
--
165
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.18
Rushing Yards
92
89
Rush Attempts
28
24
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.67
-6.33
Sacks
--
8
Sack Yards
--
-31
Sack EPA
--
-10.11
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
15
67
Penalty EPA
-2.85
-8.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,343
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+77.1
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
+16.2
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+25.3
Home QB Adjustment
+28.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
+17.6
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+28.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
30
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
23
30
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25
EPA
EPA / Play
18
32
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
10
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
1
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
16
15
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
21
4
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
30
23
EPA / Rush
18
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
31
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Colts
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U