TENTitans
7-3
45
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
026
INDColts
7-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
14
21
3
7
45
Colts
7
7
0
12
26
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
336
Total Plays
68
69
Yards / Play
6.6
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.38
+0.03
Passing Yards
220
280
Comp/Att
13/22(59%)
24/45(53%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.01
Rushing Yards
229
56
Rush Attempts
45
22
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
27
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
16
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.00
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-15
Sack EPA
-0.80
-6.04
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
63
50
Penalty EPA
-8.57
-7.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
15
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
8
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
2
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
18
4th Down Efficiency
6
6
RZ Efficiency
2
22
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
7
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
24
EPA
EPA / Play
9
28
EPA / Pass
7
27
EPA / Rush
15
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
26
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
20
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U