TENTitans
2-4
17
TBD
FedExField
55°F
13 mph
19
WASCommanders
1-5
TBD
FedExField
55°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
7
0
7
17
Commanders
3
3
7
6
19
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
236
351
Total Plays
49
57
Yards / Play
4.8
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.00
Passing Yards
160
251
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.05
Rushing Yards
76
100
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
27%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-1.94
-4.65
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
-0.37
-7.28
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
96
50
Penalty EPA
-11.00
-5.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+16.0
Home QB Adjustment
-29.1
Away QB Adjustment
-45.1
Market Regression
+36.2
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
C. Whitehurst
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-45.1
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-29.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
29
Yards / Game
29
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
16
Rushing Yards / Game
26
12
EPA
EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
30
32
EPA / Rush
17
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
2
Interceptions / Game
19
28
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
13
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
28
24
RZ Efficiency
26
15
Commanders Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
29
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
9
2
Rushing Yards / Game
18
31
EPA
EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
18
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
6
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
32
30
Turnover EPA / Game
7
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
14
RZ Efficiency
27
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
1-6-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U