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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ commanders week 7, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TEN logo
TENTitans
2-4
17
TBD
FedExField
55°F
13 mph
19
WASCommanders
1-5
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
55°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
7
0
7
17
Commanders
3
3
7
6
19

Spread

TEN logo
+6

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
236
351
Total Plays
49
57
Yards / Play
4.8
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.00
Passing Yards
160
251
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.05
Rushing Yards
76
100
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
27%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-1.94
-4.65
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
-0.37
-7.28
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
96
50
Penalty EPA
-11.00
-5.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+16.0
Home QB Adjustment
-29.1
Away QB Adjustment
-45.1
Market Regression
+36.2
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

C. Whitehurst headshot

C. Whitehurst

Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-45.1
Value
Ptile
11/07
-4.5
20
01/02
3.4
72
10/23
-11.0
1
10/30
-5.8
15
09/28
-3.2
29
10/12
-3.9
27
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-29.1
Value
Ptile
12/16
5.9
86
12/15
3.9
77
12/22
-2.6
35
12/29
-12.9
1
09/21
8.4
92
09/25
-6.3
14
10/06
3.6
75
10/12
-1.1
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Titans logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
30
29
Yards / Game
29
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
16
Rushing Yards / Game
26
12

EPA

EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
30
32
EPA / Rush
17
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
2
Interceptions / Game
19
28
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
13
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
28
24
RZ Efficiency
26
15
Commanders Offense vs Titans Defense
Commanders logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
26
29
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
9
2
Rushing Yards / Game
18
31

EPA

EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
18
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
6
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
32
30
Turnover EPA / Game
7
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
14
RZ Efficiency
27
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
1-6-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-23
L
L
O
12/15
-3
L
P
O
12/22
4
W
P
U
12/29
6
W
L
U
09/07
16
W
W
U
09/14
-16
L
L
U
09/21
-26
L
L
U
09/28
-24
L
L
O
10/05
-1
L
P
O
10/12
2
W
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-35
L
L
O
12/15
-1
L
W
O
12/22
-1
L
W
U
12/29
-14
L
L
U
09/07
-11
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
09/21
-3
L
W
O
09/25
-31
L
L
O
10/06
-10
L
L
U
10/12
-10
L
L
O