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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ eagles week 12, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
2-8
24
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
54°F
7 mph
43
PHIEagles
7-3
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
54°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
17
0
7
24
Eagles
17
10
7
9
43

Spread

PHI logo
-11

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
351
462
Total Plays
63
83
Yards / Play
5.6
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.10
Passing Yards
299
298
Comp/Att
20/39(51%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.15
Rushing Yards
52
164
Rush Attempts
19
38
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
11
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
17%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
2
10
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
40%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
7
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.76
-8.51
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-46
-9
Sack EPA
-9.56
-2.24
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
56
69
Penalty EPA
-7.04
-8.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+206
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,416
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-74.1
Home QB Adjustment
-120.6
Away QB Adjustment
-46.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
257.2
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

Z. Mettenberger headshot

Z. Mettenberger

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-46.6
Value
Ptile
10/26
1.4
60
11/09
-7.5
9
11/17
2.4
68
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-120.6
Value
Ptile
10/28
-4.1
24
11/11
-8.3
5
11/18
-1.9
37
11/22
1.3
59
12/02
-11.8
1
12/09
-4.0
24
12/17
-13.3
1
12/30
-5.7
14
11/10
2.6
69
11/16
-1.3
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Eagles Defense
Titans logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
29
28
Passing Yards / Game
16
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15

EPA

EPA / Play
30
7
EPA / Pass
30
17
EPA / Rush
17
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
19
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
13
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
26
20
Eagles Offense vs Titans Defense
Eagles logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
4
27
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31

EPA

EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
15
26
EPA / Rush
21
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
1
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
14
RZ Efficiency
24
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
16
W
W
U
09/14
-16
L
L
U
09/21
-26
L
L
U
09/28
-24
L
L
O
10/05
-1
L
P
O
10/12
2
W
L
U
10/19
-2
L
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
O
11/09
-14
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
17
W
W
O
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/21
3
W
L
O
09/28
-5
L
L
U
10/05
6
W
W
O
10/12
27
W
W
U
10/26
-4
L
L
U
11/02
10
W
W
O
11/10
24
W
W
O
11/16
-33
L
L
O