TENTitans
2-8
24
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
54°F
7 mph
43
PHIEagles
7-3
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
54°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
17
0
7
24
Eagles
17
10
7
9
43
Spread
-11
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
462
Total Plays
63
83
Yards / Play
5.6
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.10
Passing Yards
299
298
Comp/Att
20/39(51%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.15
Rushing Yards
52
164
Rush Attempts
19
38
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
11
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
17%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
2
10
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
40%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.76
-8.51
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-46
-9
Sack EPA
-9.56
-2.24
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
56
69
Penalty EPA
-7.04
-8.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+206
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,416
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-74.1
Home QB Adjustment
-120.6
Away QB Adjustment
-46.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
257.2
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
Z. Mettenberger
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-46.6
Value
Ptile
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-120.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
29
28
Passing Yards / Game
16
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15
EPA
EPA / Play
30
7
EPA / Pass
30
17
EPA / Rush
17
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
19
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
13
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
26
20
Eagles Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
4
27
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
15
26
EPA / Rush
21
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
1
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
14
RZ Efficiency
24
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U