TENTitans
1-2
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
010
ATLFalcons
1-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
14
10
0
0
24
Falcons
7
0
3
0
10
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
422
Total Plays
61
75
Yards / Play
6.0
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
364
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
35/53(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.09
Rushing Yards
138
58
Rush Attempts
34
17
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
46%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.68
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-33
Sack EPA
--
-14.68
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
77
50
Penalty EPA
-1.19
-6.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model63.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+85.6
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
-26.0
Final Difference
97.8
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
22
Yards / Game
15
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
3
15
EPA
EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
6
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
3
14
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
21
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
1
19
Falcons Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
11
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
13
EPA
EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
15
16
EPA / Rush
23
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
5
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
10
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
16
4th Down Efficiency
4
5
RZ Efficiency
25
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U