TENTitans
7-9
16
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
56°F
4 mph
20
JAXJaguars
8-8
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
56°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
10
3
0
16
Jaguars
0
7
3
4
14
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
222
Total Plays
72
47
Yards / Play
4.3
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.06
Passing Yards
165
203
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.14
Rushing Yards
147
19
Rush Attempts
39
14
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.4
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.65
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
13
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
35%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.34
-5.77
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-14
-9
Sack EPA
-11.70
-1.36
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
40
25
Penalty EPA
-5.14
-3.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+15.6
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+83.9
Home QB Adjustment
+31.0
Away QB Adjustment
-52.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
R. Dobbs
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-52.8
Value
Ptile
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+31.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
30
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
25
17
EPA / Pass
23
20
EPA / Rush
26
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
12
Yards / Game
7
23
Passing Yards / Game
29
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1
EPA
EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
14
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
13
13
Fumbles / Game
30
14
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
3
4th Down Efficiency
12
32
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
3-7
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U