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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ jaguars week 18, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
7-9
16
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
56°F
4 mph
20
JAXJaguars
8-8
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
56°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
10
3
0
16
Jaguars
0
7
3
4
14

Spread

TEN logo
+6

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
312
222
Total Plays
72
47
Yards / Play
4.3
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.06
Passing Yards
165
203
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.14
Rushing Yards
147
19
Rush Attempts
39
14
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.4
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.65
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
19
13
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
35%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.34
-5.77
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-14
-9
Sack EPA
-11.70
-1.36
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
40
25
Penalty EPA
-5.14
-3.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+15.5
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+83.9
Home QB Adjustment
+31.0
Away QB Adjustment
-52.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

R. Dobbs headshot

R. Dobbs

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-52.8
Value
Ptile
12/29
-2.4
33
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+31.0
Value
Ptile
10/23
1.9
68
10/30
-5.5
15
11/06
5.9
89
11/13
0.8
57
11/27
5.5
87
12/04
-3.5
25
12/11
11.5
98
12/18
9.5
95
12/22
4.9
85
01/01
-2.7
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
30
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12

EPA

EPA / Play
25
17
EPA / Pass
23
20
EPA / Rush
26
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
9
12
Yards / Game
7
23
Passing Yards / Game
29
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1

EPA

EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
14
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
13
13
Fumbles / Game
30
14
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
3
4th Down Efficiency
12
32
RZ Efficiency
17
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
7
W
W
U
11/06
-3
L
W
U
11/13
7
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
O
11/27
-4
L
L
U
12/04
-25
L
L
O
12/11
-14
L
L
O
12/18
-3
L
P
U
12/24
-5
L
L
U
12/29
-14
L
P
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-6
L
L
U
10/30
-4
L
L
U
11/06
7
W
W
U
11/13
-10
L
P
U
11/27
1
W
W
O
12/04
-26
L
L
O
12/11
14
W
W
O
12/18
6
W
W
O
12/22
16
W
W
U
01/01
28
W
W
U