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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ jaguars week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
3-13
+13.5
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0
-13.5
JAXJaguars
12-4
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+280
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,329
Home Field
+32.4
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+19.0
Home QB Adjustment
+21.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
+28.9
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

C. Ward headshot

C. Ward

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
Value
Ptile
10/19
-2.3
35
10/26
-5.2
16
11/02
-6.4
11
11/16
1.9
63
11/23
3.8
76
11/30
-5.9
13
12/07
-3.0
29
12/14
0.1
52
12/21
2.9
71
12/28
-0.8
45
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
Value
Ptile
10/19
-6.0
13
11/02
1.7
63
11/09
-4.7
19
11/16
0.8
57
11/23
-2.9
30
11/30
0.1
53
12/07
3.1
73
12/14
15.9
100
12/21
5.6
87
12/28
1.6
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
31
12
Passing Yards / Game
25
23
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1

EPA

EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
28
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
3
2
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
17
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
20
19
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
9
28
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
20
17

EPA

EPA / Play
13
24
EPA / Pass
15
28
EPA / Rush
14
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
5
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
13
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
11
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-18
L
L
O
10/26
-24
L
L
O
11/02
-7
L
W
O
11/16
-3
L
W
U
11/23
-6
L
W
O
11/30
-22
L
L
U
12/07
2
W
W
O
12/14
-13
L
L
O
12/21
17
W
W
U
12/28
-8
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-28
L
L
U
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
-7
L
L
O
11/16
29
W
W
U
11/23
3
W
W
O
11/30
22
W
W
U
12/07
17
W
W
O
12/14
28
W
W
O
12/21
14
W
W
O
12/28
6
W
W
U