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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ jets week 4, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
2-1
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
78°F
9 mph
27
NYJJets
0-3
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
78°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Titans
3
6
0
15
0
24
Jets
0
7
3
14
3
27

Spread

NYJ logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
432
355
Total Plays
94
60
Yards / Play
4.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.03
Passing Yards
255
289
Comp/Att
30/50(60%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.27
Rushing Yards
177
66
Rush Attempts
37
25
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
30
16
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
26%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
19
14
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.33
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-45
-8
Sack EPA
-10.09
-1.78
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
98
65
Penalty EPA
-6.28
-6.25

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-164
Home nfelo
1,346
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+65.0
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
+7.6
Net QB Adjustment
-29.4
Home QB Adjustment
-29.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
+55.0
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
11/29
1.7
56
12/06
3.6
71
12/13
1.1
52
12/20
9.4
95
12/27
-2.8
25
01/03
3.1
67
01/10
-1.6
33
09/12
-5.1
19
09/19
2.4
70
09/26
1.9
66
Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-29.8
Value
Ptile
09/12
-6.8
12
09/19
-11.7
2
09/26
-12.5
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Jets Defense
Titans logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
17
32
Passing Yards / Game
20
16
Rushing Yards / Game
5
29

EPA

EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
16
32
EPA / Rush
10
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
25
30
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
8
26
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Jets Offense vs Titans Defense
Jets logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
28
6
Yards / Game
26
11
Passing Yards / Game
13
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
1

EPA

EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
13
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
8
Interceptions / Game
29
11
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
23
21
RZ Efficiency
20
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
19
W
W
O
12/06
-6
L
L
O
12/13
21
W
W
U
12/20
21
W
W
O
12/27
-26
L
L
O
01/03
3
W
L
O
01/10
-7
L
L
U
09/12
-25
L
L
U
09/19
3
W
W
O
09/26
9
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-6
L
W
O
11/29
-17
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
W
O
12/13
-37
L
L
U
12/20
3
W
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U
01/03
-14
L
L
O
09/12
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-19
L
L
U
09/26
-26
L
L
U