TENTitans
2-1
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
78°F
9 mph
27
NYJJets
0-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
78°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Titans
3
6
0
15
0
24
Jets
0
7
3
14
3
27
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
432
355
Total Plays
94
60
Yards / Play
4.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.03
Passing Yards
255
289
Comp/Att
30/50(60%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.27
Rushing Yards
177
66
Rush Attempts
37
25
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
16
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
26%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
19
14
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.33
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-45
-8
Sack EPA
-10.09
-1.78
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
98
65
Penalty EPA
-6.28
-6.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-167
Home nfelo
1,345
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+65.0
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
+7.6
Net QB Adjustment
-29.4
Home QB Adjustment
-29.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
+55.0
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-29.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
17
32
Passing Yards / Game
20
16
Rushing Yards / Game
5
29
EPA
EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
16
32
EPA / Rush
10
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
25
30
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
27
4th Down Efficiency
8
26
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Jets Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
6
Yards / Game
26
11
Passing Yards / Game
13
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
1
EPA
EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
8
Interceptions / Game
29
11
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
23
21
RZ Efficiency
20
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U