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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ lions week 8, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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TEN logo
TENTitans
1-5
14
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
52
DETLions
5-1
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
7
0
0
14
Lions
14
21
11
0
46

Spread

DET logo
-12.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
416
225
Total Plays
71
47
Yards / Play
5.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.44
+0.25
Passing Yards
258
61
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
15/19(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
3.2
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.23
Rushing Yards
158
164
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-23.54
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-33
Sack EPA
-1.40
-8.03
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-6.12
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+261
Home nfelo
1,659
Away nfelo
1,424
Home Field
+67.2
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.3
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-41.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+48.6
Market Regression
+41.9
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

B. Rudolph headshot

B. Rudolph

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+48.6
Value
Ptile
11/10
-2.2
37
11/14
-12.1
2
11/24
-11.8
2
01/03
0.2
47
11/14
-0.4
49
12/23
3.7
74
12/31
1.2
57
01/06
1.2
57
01/15
3.1
71
10/20
-2.5
31
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Value
Ptile
01/07
5.2
82
01/14
1.5
60
01/21
3.2
71
01/28
1.5
59
09/08
-2.2
33
09/15
-2.2
33
09/22
-0.9
43
09/30
4.3
77
10/13
6.3
85
10/20
2.8
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Lions Defense
Titans logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
27
11
Yards / Game
26
26
Passing Yards / Game
15
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
6

EPA

EPA / Play
30
7
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
29
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
24
Interceptions / Game
31
7
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
30
4
RZ Efficiency
24
12
Lions Offense vs Titans Defense
Lions logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
1
30
Yards / Game
2
3
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25

EPA

EPA / Play
3
21
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
6
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
6
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
3
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-3
L
L
U
12/24
-3
L
P
U
12/31
-23
L
L
U
01/07
8
W
W
O
09/08
-7
L
L
U
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
-16
L
L
O
09/30
19
W
W
O
10/13
-3
L
L
U
10/20
-24
L
L
O
DET logo

Lions

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
10
W
W
O
01/14
1
W
L
U
01/21
8
W
W
O
01/28
-3
L
W
O
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
-4
L
L
U
09/22
7
W
W
U
09/30
13
W
W
O
10/13
38
W
W
O
10/20
2
W
W
O