TENTitans
1-5
14
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
052
DETLions
5-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
7
0
0
14
Lions
14
21
11
0
46
Spread
-12.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
225
Total Plays
71
47
Yards / Play
5.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.44
+0.25
Passing Yards
258
61
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
15/19(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
3.2
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.23
Rushing Yards
158
164
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-23.54
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-33
Sack EPA
-1.40
-8.03
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-6.12
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+261
Home nfelo
1,659
Away nfelo
1,424
Home Field
+67.2
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.3
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-41.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+48.6
Market Regression
+41.9
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
B. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+48.6
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
11
Yards / Game
26
26
Passing Yards / Game
15
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
6
EPA
EPA / Play
30
7
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
29
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
24
Interceptions / Game
31
7
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
30
4
RZ Efficiency
24
12
Lions Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
30
Yards / Game
2
3
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
3
21
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
6
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
6
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
3
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U