TENTitans
4-4
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
58°F
5 mph
30
CARPanthers
4-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
58°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
7
13
20
Panthers
0
17
7
6
30
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
370
Total Plays
65
68
Yards / Play
6.6
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.06
Passing Yards
310
214
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.13
Rushing Yards
121
156
Rush Attempts
21
33
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
30%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.29
-3.48
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-21
-18
Sack EPA
-4.81
-4.05
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
99
77
Penalty EPA
-12.86
-6.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+59.9
Base HFA
+50.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.1
Net QB Adjustment
-103.4
Home QB Adjustment
-101.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-101.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
31
Yards / Game
15
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
26
Rushing Yards / Game
3
30
EPA
EPA / Play
6
25
EPA / Pass
8
17
EPA / Rush
4
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
1
Interceptions / Game
6
10
Fumbles / Game
3
20
Turnover EPA / Game
27
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
21
4th Down Efficiency
28
31
RZ Efficiency
1
29
Panthers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13
EPA
EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
28
16
EPA / Rush
20
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
5
Interceptions / Game
30
7
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
16
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
15
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U