TENTitans
3-10
16
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
12 mph
33
NEPatriots
11-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
7
6
16
Patriots
7
11
3
6
27
Spread
-14.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
282
346
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
4.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.09
Passing Yards
223
253
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.36
Rushing Yards
59
93
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.43
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-51
-14
Sack EPA
-12.22
-3.11
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
29
35
Penalty EPA
-3.20
-6.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+359
Home nfelo
1,661
Away nfelo
1,375
Home Field
+91.1
Base HFA
+59.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.8
Time Adj
+10.7
Net QB Adjustment
-18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+19.9
Market Regression
+9.6
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.9
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
30
8
Passing Yards / Game
22
28
Rushing Yards / Game
25
10
EPA
EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
30
12
EPA / Rush
25
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
24
24
Fumbles / Game
32
11
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
5
14
Patriots Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
27
Yards / Game
9
12
Passing Yards / Game
5
15
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18
EPA
EPA / Play
1
23
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
6
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
1
Interceptions / Game
2
20
Fumbles / Game
2
29
Turnover EPA / Game
31
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U