nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ patriots week 15, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

TEN logo
TENTitans
3-10
16
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
12 mph
33
NEPatriots
11-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
40°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
7
6
16
Patriots
7
11
3
6
27

Spread

NE logo
-14.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
282
346
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
4.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.09
Passing Yards
223
253
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.36
Rushing Yards
59
93
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-11.43
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-51
-14
Sack EPA
-12.22
-3.11
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
29
35
Penalty EPA
-3.20
-6.13

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+360
Home nfelo
1,658
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+92.2
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
-18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+19.9
Market Regression
+9.6
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.9
Value
Ptile
09/20
-2.8
30
09/27
0.4
53
10/11
-0.4
48
10/18
-7.9
4
11/08
10.8
98
11/15
-1.3
41
11/19
-1.1
43
11/29
-4.2
20
12/06
9.1
95
12/13
-7.1
7
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
10/11
2.0
65
10/18
2.9
72
10/25
7.6
93
10/29
8.6
95
11/08
3.0
73
11/15
0.4
53
11/23
-1.3
42
11/29
2.4
67
12/06
-1.7
37
12/13
2.2
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Titans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
30
8
Passing Yards / Game
22
28
Rushing Yards / Game
25
10

EPA

EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
30
12
EPA / Rush
25
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
24
24
Fumbles / Game
32
11
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
5
14
Patriots Offense vs Titans Defense
Patriots logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
3
27
Yards / Game
9
12
Passing Yards / Game
5
15
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18

EPA

EPA / Play
1
23
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
6
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
1
Interceptions / Game
2
20
Fumbles / Game
2
29
Turnover EPA / Game
31
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
4
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-1
L
L
U
10/18
-28
L
L
O
10/25
-3
L
W
U
11/01
-14
L
L
U
11/08
6
W
W
O
11/15
-17
L
L
U
11/19
-6
L
L
U
11/29
-3
L
L
P
12/06
3
W
P
O
12/13
-22
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
24
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
L
O
10/25
7
W
P
O
10/29
29
W
W
U
11/08
17
W
W
U
11/15
1
W
L
O
11/23
7
W
P
U
11/29
-6
L
L
O
12/06
-7
L
L
O
12/13
21
W
W
U