TENTitans
10-7
28
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
69°F
12 mph
12
BALRavens
14-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
69°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
7
14
0
28
Ravens
0
6
0
6
12
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
530
Total Plays
53
93
Yards / Play
5.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.13
Passing Yards
83
345
Comp/Att
8/15(53%)
31/60(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.21
Rushing Yards
217
185
Rush Attempts
37
29
Yards / Rush
5.9
6.4
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
29
Passing 1st downs
5
18
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
54%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
7
11
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-16.66
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-20
Sack EPA
-1.98
-8.47
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
20
56
Penalty EPA
-2.98
-10.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+231
Home nfelo
1,703
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+50.5
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+13.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.2
Net QB Adjustment
+51.6
Home QB Adjustment
+69.2
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+69.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
3
Yards / Game
15
3
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
6
7
EPA / Pass
8
3
EPA / Rush
4
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
26
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
3
6
Turnover EPA / Game
27
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
28
3
RZ Efficiency
1
7
Ravens Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
11
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
1
13
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
1
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
5
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
9
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
16
4th Down Efficiency
5
5
RZ Efficiency
5
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Ravens
10-0
SU
9-1
ATS
5-5
O/U