TENTitans
0-1
33
TBD
Lumen Field
62°F
14 mph
30
SEASeahawks
1-0
TBD
Lumen Field
62°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Titans
3
6
7
14
3
33
Seahawks
3
21
0
6
0
30
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
532
397
Total Plays
83
52
Yards / Play
6.4
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.13
Passing Yards
320
320
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
10.3
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.27
Rushing Yards
212
77
Rush Attempts
40
18
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
33
17
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
6
2
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.49
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-27
-23
Sack EPA
-8.70
-4.45
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
45
100
Penalty EPA
-7.27
-8.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model70.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+5.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-2.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
153.3
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
17
28
Passing Yards / Game
20
32
Rushing Yards / Game
5
17
EPA
EPA / Play
17
17
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
10
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
7
Interceptions / Game
25
22
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
3
RZ Efficiency
9
3
Seahawks Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
6
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
1
EPA
EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
17
10
EPA / Rush
6
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
8
Interceptions / Game
2
11
Fumbles / Game
5
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
32
21
RZ Efficiency
3
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U