TENTitans
3-1
17
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
3 mph
38
PITSteelers
2-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
0
7
7
17
Steelers
7
14
7
10
38
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
431
Total Plays
70
64
Yards / Play
4.4
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.33
Passing Yards
240
257
Comp/Att
29/49(59%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.48
Rushing Yards
66
174
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
26
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
47%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.12
-2.44
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-4
Sack EPA
-4.92
-1.39
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
70
51
Penalty EPA
-3.26
-8.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model66.7%
Spread Pick
Steelers-3.5
Expected Value
+2.0%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-23.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
+19.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
120.7
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+19.8
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
1
Yards / Game
17
1
Passing Yards / Game
11
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
8
EPA
EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
16
7
EPA / Rush
28
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
8
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
12
30
Turnover EPA / Game
19
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
5
15
Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
8
Yards / Game
11
18
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22
EPA
EPA / Play
7
15
EPA / Pass
8
17
EPA / Rush
7
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
31
Interceptions / Game
18
24
Fumbles / Game
26
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
15
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U