TENTitans
3-4
16
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
40°F
5 mph
20
PITSteelers
4-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
40°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
10
3
0
16
Steelers
7
3
3
7
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
326
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.17
Passing Yards
235
--
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.11
Rushing Yards
105
166
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
6
3
3rd Down %
23%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.52
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-5.33
--
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
51
80
Penalty EPA
-6.74
-10.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+96
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+35.6
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.8
Net QB Adjustment
+14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-18.9
Away QB Adjustment
-33.7
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-33.7
Value
Ptile
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
18
23
Rushing Yards / Game
18
21
EPA
EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
13
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
25
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
21
4th Down Efficiency
11
11
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
15
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
26
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
14
EPA
EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
24
30
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
5
32
Fumbles / Game
8
13
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
25
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U