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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ steelers week 9, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
3-4
16
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
40°F
5 mph
20
PITSteelers
4-3
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
40°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
10
3
0
16
Steelers
7
3
3
7
20

Spread

PIT logo
-3

Total

UNDER
37

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
340
326
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.17
Passing Yards
235
--
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.11
Rushing Yards
105
166
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
6
3
3rd Down %
23%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.52
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-5.33
--
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
51
80
Penalty EPA
-6.74
-10.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+35.6
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.8
Net QB Adjustment
+15.0
Home QB Adjustment
-18.7
Away QB Adjustment
-33.8
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

W. Levis headshot

W. Levis

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-33.8
Value
Ptile
10/29
3.6
73
K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
Value
Ptile
12/24
-0.2
50
01/01
-3.4
26
01/08
-1.7
40
09/10
-5.4
17
09/18
-4.3
23
09/24
0.7
54
10/01
-7.1
10
10/08
-2.8
30
10/22
0.1
50
10/29
-5.2
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Titans logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
18
23
Rushing Yards / Game
18
21

EPA

EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
13
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
25
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
21
4th Down Efficiency
11
11
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Steelers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
28
15
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
26
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
14

EPA

EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
24
30
EPA / Rush
20
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
5
32
Fumbles / Game
8
13
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
25
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-5
L
L
U
12/29
-14
L
P
U
01/07
-4
L
W
U
09/10
-1
L
W
U
09/17
3
W
W
O
09/24
-24
L
L
U
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
-7
L
L
U
10/15
-8
L
L
U
10/29
5
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
3
W
W
U
01/08
14
W
W
O
09/10
-23
L
L
U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/24
5
W
W
U
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/22
7
W
W
U
10/29
-10
L
L
U