TENTitans
1-2
14
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
038
HOUTexans
3-0
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
0
7
14
Texans
14
0
8
4
26
Spread
-13
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
297
Total Plays
60
59
Yards / Play
5.4
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.10
Passing Yards
167
--
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.69
+0.36
Rushing Yards
158
95
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-23.24
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-11.06
--
Penalties
7
1
Penalty Yards
73
--
Penalty EPA
-13.90
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
Titans+13.0
Expected Value
+0.3%
Cover Probability
51.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+207
Home nfelo
1,638
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.5
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.3
Market Regression
+6.4
Final Difference
270.4
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Value
Ptile
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
26
7
Passing Yards / Game
25
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
6
EPA
EPA / Play
28
6
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
23
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
23
8
Turnover EPA / Game
8
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
6
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23
EPA
EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
9
23
EPA / Rush
14
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U