MINVikings
8-2
30
TBD
Soldier Field
47°F
5 mph
27
CHIBears
4-6
TBD
Soldier Field
47°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Vikings
0
14
10
3
3
30
Bears
7
3
0
17
0
27
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
452
400
Total Plays
65
75
Yards / Play
7.0
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.06
Passing Yards
328
322
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
32/50(64%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.08
Rushing Yards
124
78
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
46%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
43%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-1.25
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-16
-20
Sack EPA
-3.25
-4.06
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
45
80
Penalty EPA
-4.83
-8.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+36.8
Base HFA
+41.0
Divisional Adj
-18.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.2
Home QB Adjustment
-19.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-19.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
12
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
19
27
EPA
EPA / Play
17
17
EPA / Pass
17
10
EPA / Rush
23
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
5
RZ Efficiency
19
3
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
32
14
Passing Yards / Game
20
31
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
2
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
6
1
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
24
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
12
1
RZ Efficiency
9
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U