MINVikings
5-2
33
TBD
Twickenham Stadium
56°F
11 mph
16
CLEBrowns
0-7
TBD
Twickenham Stadium
56°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
9
11
10
33
Browns
6
7
3
0
16
Spread
-11
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
276
Total Plays
79
59
Yards / Play
4.8
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.16
Passing Yards
287
161
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.35
Rushing Yards
90
115
Rush Attempts
35
22
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+0.28
-4.08
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-1
-18
Sack EPA
-0.75
-4.95
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
58
--
Penalty EPA
-0.49
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market82.5%
Model76.4%
Spread Pick
Browns+11.0
Expected Value
+20.8%
Cover Probability
61.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-153
Home nfelo
1,338
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+43.7
Home QB Adjustment
-15.3
Away QB Adjustment
-59.0
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
-204.4
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-59.0
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
10
13
Passing Yards / Game
26
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
7
EPA
EPA / Play
11
27
EPA / Pass
9
27
EPA / Rush
26
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
6
Interceptions / Game
6
31
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
23
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
12
32
Browns Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
2
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2
EPA
EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
32
4
EPA / Rush
4
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
26
Interceptions / Game
32
13
Fumbles / Game
25
32
Turnover EPA / Game
1
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
24
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U