MINVikings
0-1
33
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
034
ARICardinals
1-0
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
14
9
1
3
27
Cardinals
7
17
7
3
34
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
419
474
Total Plays
60
60
Yards / Play
7.0
7.9
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.11
Passing Yards
242
371
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
29/36(81%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
10.3
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.13
Rushing Yards
177
103
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
6.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
20%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-13.67
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-29
Sack EPA
-1.73
-5.51
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-7.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-2.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+11.9
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
10
12
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
17
21
EPA
EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
12
15
EPA / Rush
26
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
15
Interceptions / Game
2
19
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
10
22
Cardinals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
9
30
Passing Yards / Game
10
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
26
EPA
EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
12
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
10
12
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
14
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U