MINVikings
8-4
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
023
ARICardinals
10-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
3
0
10
20
Cardinals
10
0
7
6
23
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
393
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
6.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.17
Passing Yards
317
296
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.38
Rushing Yards
72
97
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
17
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
55%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-12.12
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-14
Sack EPA
-2.56
-4.27
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
25
--
Penalty EPA
-1.54
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+217
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+92.2
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
+35.2
Home QB Adjustment
+28.1
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
+50.1
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+28.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
13
Yards / Game
29
7
Passing Yards / Game
31
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
8
EPA
EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
24
8
EPA / Rush
4
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
27
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
25
15
Cardinals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
5
Yards / Game
2
9
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
12
17
EPA
EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
3
11
EPA / Rush
11
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
6
Interceptions / Game
23
16
Fumbles / Game
28
25
Turnover EPA / Game
11
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
4
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
10
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Cardinals
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U