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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ cardinals week 14, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
8-4
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
23
ARICardinals
10-2
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
3
0
10
20
Cardinals
10
0
7
6
23

Spread

MIN logo
+10

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
389
393
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
6.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.17
Passing Yards
317
296
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.38
Rushing Yards
72
97
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
17
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
55%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-12.12
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-14
Sack EPA
-2.56
-4.27
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
25
--
Penalty EPA
-1.54
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+215
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+93.1
Base HFA
+61.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.3
Time Adj
+10.9
Net QB Adjustment
+35.2
Home QB Adjustment
+28.1
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
+50.1
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
Value
Ptile
09/27
-6.3
10
10/04
-1.4
41
10/18
-5.8
12
10/25
1.9
64
11/01
-2.6
31
11/08
-0.7
47
11/15
-3.8
23
11/22
1.1
58
11/29
-2.8
30
12/06
-8.9
3
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+28.1
Value
Ptile
09/27
2.7
70
10/04
-0.7
46
10/11
1.0
56
10/18
1.7
63
10/26
2.4
67
11/01
7.1
91
11/15
3.5
75
11/22
3.3
75
11/29
1.2
59
12/06
4.9
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Vikings logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
19
13
Yards / Game
29
7
Passing Yards / Game
31
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
8

EPA

EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
24
8
EPA / Rush
4
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
27
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
25
15
Cardinals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
2
5
Yards / Game
2
9
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
12
17

EPA

EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
3
11
EPA / Rush
11
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
6
Interceptions / Game
23
16
Fumbles / Game
28
25
Turnover EPA / Game
11
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
4
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
10
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
17
W
W
U
10/04
-3
L
W
U
10/18
6
W
W
U
10/25
9
W
W
O
11/01
3
W
W
U
11/08
3
W
W
U
11/15
16
W
W
P
11/22
-17
L
L
U
11/29
10
W
W
U
12/06
-31
L
L
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
40
W
W
O
10/04
-2
L
L
O
10/11
25
W
W
O
10/18
-12
L
L
U
10/26
8
W
L
U
11/01
14
W
W
O
11/15
7
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
L
O
11/29
6
W
L
U
12/06
24
W
W
U