MINVikings
3-3
10
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
037
LACChargers
4-3
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
7
0
10
Chargers
7
14
3
13
37
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
164
419
Total Plays
47
70
Yards / Play
3.5
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.21
Passing Yards
130
212
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
18/25(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.46
Rushing Yards
34
207
Rush Attempts
11
43
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.65
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
29
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
27%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.26
-5.42
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-27
-15
Sack EPA
-6.93
-3.32
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
66
46
Penalty EPA
-7.06
-3.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+55.5
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.6
Net QB Adjustment
+15.0
Home QB Adjustment
+9.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.0
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
18
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
18
EPA
EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
30
4
EPA / Rush
24
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
5
Interceptions / Game
31
7
Fumbles / Game
10
32
Turnover EPA / Game
3
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
6
4th Down Efficiency
14
18
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Chargers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
16
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22
EPA
EPA / Play
22
6
EPA / Pass
22
9
EPA / Rush
12
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
3
Interceptions / Game
25
29
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
9
29
RZ Efficiency
26
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U